Indeed there has been much discussion of why single-parenthood has increased
in the United States. Conservative critics such as Murray (1984) ascribe the breakdown
to the incentives generated by the welfare system. Yet, as the welfare system
has become less generous, the decline of the traditional family has not reversed itself.
The evidence here suggests that the dynamics of family status are such that the trend
it is not likely to be reversed easily. Whatever, the initial push factor, as the numbers
of boys who grow up without their fathers increases, so will the number of individuals
in the next generation who are not married increase.
The good news is that, while not unimportant, the social impact of this chanj;ing
family structure is likely to be much less negative than simple analysis would suggest
since there is little evidence that parental presence early in life affects economic
well-being later.