Abramson and other experts argue that the effects of the campaign need to be studied. One important question is safety. The yellow fever vaccine is itself a living virus that can replicate inside the body and, in very rare cases, cause a disease in which the vaccine virus proliferates in multiple organs, often leading to death. Although a lower dose would be expected to lead to fewer side effects, that may not be the case. Some researchers have argued that lower doses may be slower to kick the immune system into gear, which could cause the vaccine virus to linger in the body for longer and actually increase the risk of some side effects. A few studies have found no such effect, but because severe side effects are very rare (about one in 2 million), small trials cannot provide definitive answers.
The other question is efficacy. A recent study on 749 men in Brazil showed that a 46-fold diluted vaccine triggered the same antibody response as a full dose. A study in the Netherlands found that a fifth of a normal dose injected intradermally was just as effective as a normal dose injected subcutaneously (the usual route).
But more data on the efficacy of the lower dose need to be collected, especially because an African population may react differently to those studied in the trials. Ideally, scientists would set up a randomized, controlled clinical trial to assess the immune response to the lower dose, says Tom Monath, a virologist who has studied yellow fever for decades and currently works at NewLink Genetics, a biotech company in Ames, Iowa. But Monath concedes that that is unlikely given the time pressure and the logistical problems. At the very least, researchers should collect blood samples and compare the antibody responses from people who received the full and the lower dose, he argues. “It wouldn't be a formal study but it would give you some confidence that people have responded appropriately,” Monath says. "I think that really should be done.”
Another important question is whether 0.1 milliliters of the vaccine also offers lifelong protection. If not, the population will have to be revaccinated in the future. It’s also not clear whether lower doses will be protective in young children.
In a paper advocating the dose-sparing strategy that Monath and eight other scientists just submitted, they go one step further. "If the worst-case scenario were to come to pass and yellow fever spread in Asia, serious consideration should be given to using a one-tenth dose,” the authors write. "Although it would probably protect any age group for only a few months, a one-tenth dose should mitigate the severity of a yellow fever infection, preventing some deaths.“