What is likely to happen to the value of the dollar as the U.S. current-account deficit increases? Explain.
ANSWER. It all depends on what is driving the increase in the U.S. current-account deficit. If the deficit increases
because the U.S. economy is growing strongly, then the dollar is likely to rise in value as foreign capital comes in to
take advantage of growth opportunities. On the other hand, if the current-account deficit rises because the
government budget deficit is increasing, then the value of the dollar is likely to decline because of the adverse
implications of a budget deficit for future economic growth. The current-account deficit could also be increasing
because the exchange rate is set at too high a level. If so, then the dollar’s future prospects would be dim as well.
Similarly, if the U.S. current-account deficit is rising because foreign central banks are intervening to hold down the
values of their currencies, then the U.S. dollar should fall sooner or later.