The median incremental gross margin over the last five years is
61%. The high was 67% in 2014 while the low was 57% over the
last twelve months (Nov-15 to Aug-16).
2) We are assuming that Micron can generate 65% incremental
gross margin over the course of this cycle, slightly better than
a 5-year median. There are several positive factors in play: The
leading supplier in the market, Samsung, is showing a willingness to
adjust DRAM capacity in order to bring supply-demand in balance.
We expect DRAM bit supply to decrease from the low-to-mid 20%
range in 2016 to less than 20% (record low) in 2017 as wafer
production declines. Micron’s cost structure should also
meaningfully improve. In DRAM, we believe the company is making
progress on qualifications of 20nm LPDDR4 in mobile and 8GB
DDR4 in enterprise, cloud and client. In NAND, there hasn't been a
process shrink in over two years. But costs should come down as
Micron transitions to lower cost 3D NAND and TLC products.