As the value of the U.S. dollar rises, what is likely to happen to the U.S. balance on current account? Explain.
ANSWER. As the dollar rises in value, other things being equal, U.S. goods and services become relatively more
expensive in foreign currency terms, while foreign goods and services become relatively less expensive in dollar
terms. The result is a smaller surplus or larger deficit on the current account. Of course, this conclusion could be
reversed if the reason for the rise in the real value of the dollar was a significant increase in U.S. productivity, which
would facilitate exports. However, other things do not remain equal. In fact, exchange rates equate currency supplies
and demands. They do not determine the distribution of these currency flows between trade flows (the currentaccount
balance) and capital flows (the financial-account balance). This view of exchange rates predicts that there is
no simple relation between the exchange rate and the current-account balance. Trade deficits do not cause currency
depreciation, nor does currency depreciation by itself help reduce a trade deficit: Both exchange rate changes and
trade balances are determined by more fundamental economic factors. These more fundamental factors are a
nation’s savings and investment decisions.