Cyprus V Iceland – Tuesday, 11 September 2012 (Kick-Off: 18:00)
Betting Selection: Iceland to Win @ 11/5 (Boylesports)
Having began qualification for the 2014 World Cup in contrasting fashion, I must say I am a little surprised with the odds on offer. Cyprus are 5/4 to win at home, visitors Iceland are 11/5, while the draw is 9/4 (prices with Boylesports).
Hosts Cyprus were very poor away to Albania on Friday and were duly dispatched 3-1, creating very little in the Albanian capital of Tirana. The latter was hardly surprising as the Cypriots are not renowned for their goalscoring prowess; in their last eight internationals, during which they failed to record a single victory (W0 D1 L7), the nation ranked 135 in the world – which is their lowest ever ranking – found the back of the net on just four occasions.
Furthermore, Cyprus seem to fare much worse in front of their home supporters, or at least the small gathering that do bother to attend home matches. A crowd of over 15,000 watched on as Portugal romped to a 4-0 win in September of last year for a Euro 2012 qualifier, which was a decent turnout for a country with just over 1,000,000 inhabitants, but just 2,000 witnessed the goalless draw with Iceland in the preceding home qualifier (Iceland won the return fixture 1-0 at home).
So playing in Cyprus, particularly if you are one of the smaller nations, is never going to be an intimidating experience, which would possibly explain why the hosts have only won once and found the back of the net seven times, failing to score on five occasions, in their previous ten home internationals. So surely, then, the Icelandic visitors must be value at 11/5!
Perhaps not. As for all Cyprus’ shortcomings, Iceland bring with them a fair share of their own. Like having not won on their travels for what is now approaching four years, losing their last seven away internationals on the spin. However during the latterly-mentioned poor sequence, the Nordic nation did push several decent teams to their limit more recently.
In their final Euro 2012 qualifier, Iceland went and scored three in Porto in a 5-3 loss to Portugal – who were losing semi-finalists in the main tournament itself, in Poland & Ukraine. Montenegro edged them out 2-1 in Podgorica at the beginning of the year, while in May they were on the wrong end of a couple of 3-2 reverses in France and Sweden. Two goals in the closing six minutes denied them what would have been a shock but deserved, on the reflection of play, victory in France. So they are getting closer to that elusive away win.
There is a proverb in football that I often scoff at, it goes: ‘You are only as good as your last game’. I see teams make a mockery of this every weekend, which is precisely why I very rarely apply it to my bets. But Cyprus are an uninspiring bunch, whereas Iceland are to the contrary. The latter were fantastic on Friday, dispatching Norway 2-0 in the Icelandic capital of Reykjavik. Yes they rode their luck on occasions, but they gave as good as they got, against a superior side, and, most importantly, took their chances when they came. Another clinical display like that would almost certainly be good enough in Larnarca, in front of a small crowd whose home side consistently struggle to impose themselves on opposing defences.
It is a little risky considering their lousy away record; however, Iceland boast all the momentum following their stunning success on Friday over Norway – their first victory over the Norwegians for 25 years – and they’ll be all too aware that a second quickfire victory would throw them into surprise qualifying contention. I think they’re a fantastic punt at the price. Plus, remember the visitors will have Tottenham Hotspur’s Gylfi Sigurdsson in their starting line-up, no doubt pulling the strings again, as he did four days ago. He may be one of a select few potential match-winners on the pitch!