The model with most support from our mark–recapture data (87%) incorporated differences in hatchling survival between habitat types over time (i.e. from 2002 to 2006; Table 2). Thenext highest-ranking model was one where survival varied with time, but not by habitat type (Table 2). None of the other candidate models carried much weight (Table 2). There was considerable support for a real difference between the two highest-ranking models (DQAICc = 3Æ92), and consequently we used the highest-ranking model to estimate survival parameters.