Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey:?rstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator popula-tion to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for NortheastArctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example followingan oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomassreductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guidewhich indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies.