tal approach that converts investment returns into their consumption equivalents. Using this approach, a 3.5 percent rate is recommended by Moore et al. (2004). To capture a reasonable range of opinion in the literature, simulations are conductedatsocietaldiscountratesofboth3percentand7percent.Becausetheprivate discount rate is always assumed to be 7 percent, the private and societal discount rates are consistent in one set of simulations and not in the other. The implications are assessed in the next several sections. It is also noteworthy that when the societal discount rate is assumed to be 3 percent, intra- and intergenerational discount rates are consistent, because the 3 percent rate underlies the SCC estimates used in our study. But in the simulations based on the 7 percent discount rate, the intra- and intergenerationaldiscountratesarenotconsistent.Althoughtherelationshipbetween intra- and intergenerational social discount rates in another source of debate in the BCA literature, different rates are allowed for in OMB (2003), and recommended by some authors (e.g., Moore et al., 2004).SIMULATION STRUCTURE AND RESULTS A spreadsheet is used to simulate conditional probability density functions for pervehicleNPVseachyearfrom2012through2030
tal approach that converts investment returns into their consumption equivalents. Using this approach, a 3.5 percent rate is recommended by Moore et al. (2004). To capture a reasonable range of opinion in the literature, simulations are conductedatsocietaldiscountratesofboth3percentand7percent.Becausetheprivate discount rate is always assumed to be 7 percent, the private and societal discount rates are consistent in one set of simulations and not in the other. The implications are assessed in the next several sections. It is also noteworthy that when the societal discount rate is assumed to be 3 percent, intra- and intergenerational discount rates are consistent, because the 3 percent rate underlies the SCC estimates used in our study. But in the simulations based on the 7 percent discount rate, the intra- and intergenerationaldiscountratesarenotconsistent.Althoughtherelationshipbetween intra- and intergenerational social discount rates in another source of debate in the BCA literature, different rates are allowed for in OMB (2003), and recommended by some authors (e.g., Moore et al., 2004).<br>模拟结构和结果的电子表格被用于模拟的条件概率密度函数为pervehicleNPVseachyearfrom2012through2030
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